Ege
Cogulu

Data Scientist  ·  Ph.D. in Physics

I work across causal inference, A/B testing, time-series forecasting, and statistical modeling at scale. Most recently at Meta on ads measurement and attribution strategy, before that at Happy Returns through its acquisitions by PayPal and UPS, and before that doing physics research at NYU's Center for Quantum Phenomena. I also write about statistics, probability, and physics simulations.

10+ Years Python
4+ Years SQL
Ph.D. Physics, NYU
11 Publications
$160M+ Revenue Impact
Experimentation A/B Testing Causal Inference Statistical Modeling
Ege Cogulu

Background

I'm a Senior Data Scientist with a background in experimental physics, specializing in causal inference, experimentation, and statistical modeling at scale.

At Meta, I work on ads measurement and help advertisers understand the true return on investment of their ad campaigns. My work focuses on building and strengthening attribution strategy by integrating experimentation with causal inference methods: difference-in-differences, propensity score matching, synthetic controls, and incrementality frameworks, to better reflect how the advertising industry measures impact. I also lead cross-functional efforts to standardize fair-credit rules for external measurement partners across methodologies like MTA, MMM, and GeoLift.

Before Meta, I spent three years at Happy Returns (acquired by PayPal, then UPS during my tenure). I started building predictive models for shipping supply forecasting across thousands of locations and led multi-round A/B tests on customer-facing features. Over time my work shifted toward experimentation and optimization, building time-series forecasting pipelines for shipping logistics across 10,000 centers.

My PhD research at NYU's Center for Quantum Phenomena focused on current-induced spin dynamics in antiferromagnetic materials, supervised by Andy Kent. I worked with hundreds of gigabytes of electron microscopy image data and developed analytical and numerical models to extract signal from high-dimensional voltage data as a function of temperature, current, and magnetic field.

Outside of work, I write about topics I find interesting in the blog, mostly statistics, probability, and the occasional physics simulation.

Contact

San Francisco, CA

Education

Ph.D. in Physics New York University · 2022
B.S. Mechanical Engineering + Physics Bogazici University · 2015

Experience

Senior Data Scientist
Meta
Jun 2025 – Present
  • Strengthened Meta's attribution strategy by integrating experimentation, causal inference (DiD, PSM, synthetic controls), and incrementality frameworks to better reflect advertiser-industry measurement expectations.
  • Led cross-functional efforts to standardize fair-credit rules for external measurement partners (MTA, MMM, GeoLift), resulting in a 0.1% incremental revenue impact ($160M/year).
Data Scientist → Senior Data Scientist
Happy Returns (PayPal / UPS)
May 2022 – May 2025
  • Developed a linear predictive model to forecast usage of shipping supplies for 10,000 locations, resulting in an 80% reduction in stock-outs.
  • Created data visualization dashboards and reports using Tableau and Looker to track success metrics for cross-functional projects adopted by multiple departments.
  • Led the design, implementation, and analysis of multi-round A/B tests to evaluate effects of choice availability on customer behavior, resulting in 4% increased foot traffic for preferred partners.
  • Optimized shipping cadence of 10,000 unique shipping centers using statistical modeling and time-series forecasting, saving ~5% in shipping costs (~$50K/month).
Research Assistant
Center for Quantum Phenomena, NYU
Sep 2016 – May 2022
  • Collected and analyzed hundreds of GBs of image data from electron microscopy experiments using peak finding, edge detection, background subtraction, non-linear filtering, and feature alignment.
  • Analyzed multi-dimensional voltage data as a function of temperature, electric current, and magnetic field. Extracted fit parameters by modeling the response analytically and numerically.

Skills

Languages
Python (10+ yrs) SQL (3+ yrs) MATLAB R C Mathematica
Methods
A/B Testing Causal Inference DiD / PSM Synthetic Controls Time-Series Forecasting Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference
Libraries
Pandas NumPy SciPy Prophet Scikit-learn Matplotlib Plotly
Tools & Platforms
Looker Tableau PowerBI GCP AWS

Blog Posts

Notes on statistics, probability, and physics. Written for people who like thinking carefully about things.

Feb 2, 2025

Bayesian vs. Frequentist Approach to Probability and Uncertainty

Two schools of thought dominate statistical inference. Using a simple coin flip example, this post walks through how each framework builds uncertainty intervals, what those intervals actually mean, and when to reach for one over the other.

Bayesian Frequentist Confidence Intervals
Nov 24, 2024

The Counter-Intuitiveness of "Random"

What does "random" actually look like? Most people have a confident answer: scattered, spread out, no obvious patterns. But true randomness looks nothing like that. It clusters, repeats, and surprises in ways our intuitions don't expect.

Probability Randomness
Nov 11, 2024

Bootstrapping for Confidence Intervals and A/B Testing

When running experiments, understanding uncertainty and statistical significance matters a lot. This post explores how the bootstrapping method helps calculate confidence intervals and p-values in a concrete A/B test scenario.

A/B Testing Bootstrapping Statistics

Ising Model Simulation

An interactive simulation of the 2D Ising model: a lattice of spins that spontaneously orders below a critical temperature. Press play to restart.

Publications

Physics research from my time at NYU's Center for Quantum Phenomena. Full list on Google Scholar.

PhD Thesis
Current Induced Spin Dynamics in Antiferromagnets
Egecan Cogulu
ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, New York University, 2022
First Author Papers
Quantifying Spin-Orbit Torques in Antiferromagnet/Heavy Metal Heterostructures
E. Cogulu, N. N. Statuto, Y. Cheng, F. Yang, R. V. Chopdekar, H. Ohldag, A. D. Kent
Physical Review Letters, 2022
Direct Imaging of Electrical Switching of Antiferromagnetic Néel Order in α-Fe₂O₃ Epitaxial Films
E. Cogulu, Y. Cheng, H. Ren, N. N. Statuto, H. Ohldag, F. Yang, A. D. Kent
Physical Review B, 2021
Other Papers
Toward Multiple-Bit-Per-Cell Memory Operation with Stable Resistance Levels in Phase Change Nanodevices
Gokce et al., E. Cogulu, et al.
IEEE Transactions on Electron Devices, 2016
First Harmonic Measurements of the Spin Seebeck Effect
Chen et al., E. Cogulu, et al.
Applied Physics Letters, 2018
Efficient Spin Current Generation in Low-Damping Mg(Al,Fe)₂O₄ Thin Films
Riddiford et al., E. Cogulu, et al.
Applied Physics Letters, 2019
Spin Transport in an Insulating Ferrimagnetic-Antiferromagnetic-Ferrimagnetic Trilayer as a Function of Temperature
Chen et al., E. Cogulu, et al.
AIP Advances, 2019
Precessional Spin-Torque Dynamics in Biaxial Antiferromagnets
S. Parthasarathy, E. Cogulu, A. D. Kent, S. Rakheja
Physical Review B, 2021
Thermal Effects in Spin-Torque Switching of Perpendicular Magnetic Tunnel Junctions at Cryogenic Temperatures
Rehm et al., E. Cogulu, et al.
Physical Review Applied, 2021
Third Harmonic Characterization of Antiferromagnetic Heterostructures
Y. Cheng, E. Cogulu, et al.
Nature Communications, 2022
Zero-Field Nucleation and Fast Motion of Skyrmions Induced by Nanosecond Current Pulses in a Ferrimagnetic Thin Film
M. Quessab, E. Cogulu, et al.
Nano Letters, 2022
Ultra-Thin Lithium Aluminate Spinel Ferrite Films with Perpendicular Magnetic Anisotropy and Low Damping
Y. Zheng, E. Cogulu, et al.
Nature Communications, 2023